How Risk Scoring Works

Current Formula

Risk Radar assigns each active sprint item a score from 0.0 to 10.0 using this fixed formula:

Risk Score = 10 × clamp(0.40 × Delivery + 0.35 × Impact + 0.25 × Uncertainty, 0, 1)

The result is rounded to one decimal place.

Delivery Definition

Delivery reflects execution risk. It combines:

• staleness since the item was last updated

• whether the item is overdue

• whether the item has an assignee

• whether visible progress appears low relative to staleness

Current Delivery Inputs

• staleness = clamp(days since last update / 14, 0, 1)

• overdue = 1 if the item due date is in the past, otherwise 0

• no owner = 1 if the assignee is empty, otherwise 0

• progress lag = max(staleness - percentComplete/100, 0) when percentComplete exists

Current Delivery Formula

Delivery = clamp(0.4 × staleness + 0.3 × overdue + 0.2 × no owner + 0.1 × progress lag, 0, 1)

Impact Definition

Impact reflects how much the item may matter to sprint outcomes. It combines:

• priority

• estimate size in points

Current Impact Inputs

• priority score

  • High = 1.0

  • Medium = 0.5

  • Low = 0.2

  • None = 0.1

• points score

  • clamp(points / 13, 0, 1)

Current Impact Formula

Impact = clamp(0.7 × priority score + 0.3 × points score, 0, 1)

Uncertainty Definition

Uncertainty reflects how much confidence is missing from the item. It combines:

• lack of estimate

• a late item still in To Do status

Current Uncertainty Inputs

• no estimate = 0.5 when points are missing

• To Do late = 0.5 when item status is To Do and the sprint has elapsed by at least 40%

Current Uncertainty Formula

Uncertainty = clamp(no estimate + To Do late, 0, 1)

Risk Thresholds

• High Risk: >= 6.0

• Medium Risk: >= 4.0 and < 6.0

• Low Risk: < 4.0

• Done items: shown as Closed

Closed Items and Sprint Average

Closed items are excluded from the sprint average.

If an item is mapped to a done/closed/completed state, Risk Radar:

• treats it as Closed

• gives it no active risk weighting

• excludes it from Sprint Risk Score averaging